Extended SEIR Model for Health Policies Assessment Against the COVID-19 Pandemic: the Case of Argentina.

This work presents an extended and age-band compartmentalised SEIR model that allows describing the spread evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and evaluating the effect of different detection rates, vaccination strategies or immunity periods. The model splits up the population into fifteen age groups of 5 years each, linked through a statistical interaction matrix that includes seventeen health states within each age group. An age-dependent transmission rate takes into account infectious between the groups as well the effect of interventions such as quarantines and mobility restrictions. Further, the proposal includes a nonlinear switched controller for model tuning purposes guarantying a simple and fast adjusting process. To illustrate the model potentials, the particular case of COVID-19 evolution in Argentina is analysed by simulation of three scenarios: (i) different detection levels combined with mobility restrictions, (ii) vaccination campaigns with re-opening of activities and (iii) vaccination campaigns with possible reinfections. The results exhibit how the model can aid the authorities in the decision making process.

Potentials of constrained sliding mode control as an intervention guide to manage COVID19 spread.

This work evaluates the potential of using sliding mode reference conditioning (SMRC) techniques as a guide for non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) to control the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, for the epidemiological problem addressed here, it is used to compute the contact rate reduction requirement in order to limit the infectious population to a given threshold. The SMRC controller allows the desired output variable limit and its approaching rate to be tuned explicitly. Implementation issues are taken into account and a periodically update of the NPI is proposed for the real life application. The strategy is evaluated under different scenarios where its distinctive features are exhibited.